Kitchen table economics (Page 3)
A tale of two economies: still solid job gains fueling strong consumer spending, especially for big ticket items, versus the trade war hitting primarily the manufacturing sector (with early hints of spillovers into other parts of the economy). Overall economic growth is slowing but only to around the long-term trend rate of the economy…at least for now.
Risk on in September (Page 4)
Financial markets have been significantly impacted by geopolitics this year. Despite the uncertainty surrounding the burgeoning trade war, Brexit, and other conflicts, the S&P 500 stock index moved back to within 1.0 percent of its all-time high in September.
Oil price shocks less likely to derail the U.S. economy (Page 5)
With crude oil prices still below their level at the outset of the expansion in 2009, it would take a substantial price increase to help fuel a downturn. There are legitimate risks to the economy to be sure, but oil is still a long way from tipping the scales.
Charts & Commentaries (Pages 6-9)
Business activity slows further